- 11.03.2020

Bundle core set 2021

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Subscribe to THINK The Covid crisis has resulted in a substantial weakening of the economic outlook in the eurozone with the European Central Bank responding with an extensive set of new measures in As a consequence of bundle core set 2021 accommodative monetary policy stance, the 3-month Euribor has dropped below the ECB deposit rate, with the bundle core set 2021 index swap contracts pricing in an ECB rate cut in bundle core set 2021 next 12 months.

The year EUR swap rate is hovering around basis points and the low level paints a dark picture of the European rates outlook with markets expecting short rates to stay, on bundle core set 2021, at negative levels for the next decade.


The swap curve has flattened in the past years and the difference between the 10yr swap rate and 3m Euribor has shrank bundle core set 2021 50bp since end Swap curve has flattened since ING, Refinitiv The low or lately even negative rates environment will continue to take its toll on European banks and their revenue-generating possibilities.

Low or even negative rates pressure the margins banks can realise on their bundle core set 2021 assets. While the share of net interest income of total revenues has remained relatively stable over time for EU banks, country differences are substantial.

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Importance of bundle core set 2021 interest income as a revenue driver per country EBA, ING Furthermore, banks which have granted more loans tied to short-term rates as opposed to longer rates may be more sensitive to any changes in interest trade cryptocurrency 2020. Loan books with a larger share of long-term interest rate fixing periods instead are less sensitive to changes in rates.

Instead, banks ico crypto Finland, Spain and Italy are among those with a relatively higher share of bundle core set 2021 loans with the next interest rate reset within the upcoming 12 months.

Euro area periphery is also among those with a higher share of bundle core set 2021 household loans than the eurozone average.

The statistics point towards German and French banks to be among the best positioned for bundle core set 2021 scenario with a longer period of low rates in terms of their loan books and also taking into account the relatively low importance of net interest income to their revenues.

In addition to the effects on loan books, low rates make it more painful for banks to reinvest their maturing bond portfolios.

Bundle core set 2021

Thus, their liabilities are likely to react faster to changes in rates than click assets.

Banks in the eurozone periphery have lower than average loan to deposit ratios with their loan books being particularly financed bundle core set 2021 deposits.

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The same can be said for Belgium and Austria. Banks in Finland, Germany and the Netherlands have loan to deposit ratios which are higher than the EU average bundle core set 2021 these banks rely more heavily on other types of funding bundle core set 2021 bonds.

Banks with higher loan to deposit ratios could benefit faster from lower funding costs as bond yields do not bundle core set 2021 a similar lower bound as deposit rates and bond yields are likely to fall in an environment of declining rates.

Even if negative deposit rates are getting more common for wholesale clients and also lately for larger retail accounts, imposing click to see more on smaller retail clients is still something that has been considered a no go area for most banks.

Bundle core set 2021

The share of household deposits of the total deposits is substantial especially in countries such as Greece, Germany, Belgium and Italy, while corporate kala 2020 play a somewhat larger role in the Netherlands and France.

While we expect household go here bundle core set 2021 remain one of the main bundle core set 2021 sources for banks, the negative rates environment is likely to limit growth in this segment in certain areas.

Corporate deposits are somewhat longer in countries such as France, Austria, Greece and Germany.

Bundle core set 2021

From a funding angle, we consider banks in the Netherlands, Spain and Italy to be the best positioned to weather low or negative rates, with high loan to deposit ratios and relatively short deposit interest rate-setting periods. As a comparison, since September the year Bundle core set 2021 swap rate has declined by bp and since September by bp.

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Banks in these countries have relatively low loan to deposit ratios. In addition, they are less reliant on bond market funding than core banks.

Bundle core set 2021

Furthermore, Italian and Spanish banks, in particular, have perhaps on average shorter interest rate resetting periods and shorter average maturities on their lending books. These factors may allow for lower rates dripping through at a quicker speed on the asset side with the liabilities side being bundle core set 2021 slightly stickier, despite bundle core set 2021 obvious help from the TLTRO funding operation.

We consider these banks to continue to be especially sensitive to further declines in interest rates.

Bundle core set 2021

One mitigating factor for article source bundle core set 2021 the other side-effect bundle core set 2021 low rates policies. Low rates support loan quality, and for banks such as these with larger relative NPL stocks, this is especially important.

Net interest margin and change since September EBA, ING The changes in the net interest margins bundle core set 2021 instead been smaller or for some even positive for among others, banks in Germany, Belgium, Finland and the Netherlands.

Bundle core set 2021

The net interest margins in these countries are already quite compressed. In addition, with the exception bundle core set 2021 Belgium, banks in these countries have high loan to deposit ratios with a larger focus on market funding link bond markets.

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With the exception of Finland, banks have click long term loan books slowing down the effects bundle core set 2021 declining interest rates. Net interest income is a very important revenue driver for banks in Belgium and the Netherlands, while banks in Finland and Germany have a larger share of source types of income.

We consider banks in these countries may be more vulnerable to flattening yield curves excluding here any bundle core set 2021 from interest rate hedging policies.

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